AGP Executive Report

Strait of Hormuz Waterway Tensions: Oman is backing a Middle East-supported plan to manage the Strait of Hormuz via voluntary ship fees, aiming to reduce trade disruption from the US-Iran conflict; Iran has floated joint management with Oman, while the US pushes for the older “free passage” model. Heat and Wildfire Risk: Record-breaking heat and climate-amplified wildfire conditions are driving evacuations across Europe, with France reporting major wildfire progress as humidity and cooler weather help firefighters, while Greece’s Crete faces fast-moving blazes. Climate Shock to Food Security: El Niño is intensifying and could bring drought or flooding to key farming regions, adding a new pressure point to already strained global food supplies amid Ukraine and Middle East war impacts. Energy Prices and Policy Spillovers: The Bank of England kept rates at 3.75% despite upside risks to inflation from Middle East-driven energy costs, with policymakers split on how quickly to react. Water and Land Stress in the Region: Iraq is seeing land pressure from housing expansion into fertile farmland, raising stakes for water and climate resilience. Local Climate Diplomacy: Azerbaijan says it has shifted from hosting COP29 to staying active in climate diplomacy through follow-up initiatives like the Shamakhi meeting.

Housing & Food Security: Iraq is losing tens of thousands of hectares of fertile farmland to housing expansion, threatening vegetable and staple production and pushing up import dependence. Displacement & Rights: Al-Anbar and the UN agreed a roadmap to finish closing displacement camps, speed returns, and tackle missing persons and mass graves. Armed Groups & Deadline Pressure: Iraq’s September 30 weapons deadline is set to undercut factions’ long-standing justification for arms, raising uncertainty over disarmament terms. Maritime Governance Clash: Oman’s proposal for a regional Strait of Hormuz management model is rejected by Iran, while Yemen’s Houthis float a mirror “toll” idea for Bab el-Mandeb—another pressure point for shipping and energy flows. Marine Life & Noise: A report warns underwater ocean noise is rising in the Western Indian Ocean as conflict-driven rerouting boosts shipping, threatening whales and other sound-dependent species. Heat & Health: Extreme heat and wildfires are worsening across the region and beyond, with scientists warning climate extremes are becoming more severe. Labor & Vulnerability: In Iraqi Kurdistan, private-sector nurses report very low pay and weak protections, highlighting how crises strain essential services.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions: Iran rejected Oman’s proposal for joint regional management of the Strait of Hormuz, saying control must stay between Iran and Oman and warning that a 50/50 setup would not serve its interests, as Gulf states discuss a voluntary-fee model to ease trade disruption. Regional Conflict & Energy Security: Jordan said its air defenses intercepted five missiles launched from Iran as the US and Saudi Arabia carried out strikes on Iran-backed militias in Iraq, underscoring how the conflict keeps pressure on regional shipping and fuel flows. Renewables Push: Jordan’s education-China pivot and Qatar’s labor-market milestone were noted, but the clearest environment-linked signal came from the Philippines’ renewables drive—aiming for 35% by 2030 and 50% by 2040—alongside energy-saving measures during Middle East-related disruptions. Heat & Adaptation: In the UK, Greggs reported resilience during a heatwave by shifting menus toward iced drinks and salads, a reminder of how extreme heat is reshaping consumption patterns. Water/Climate Tech (Market Signals): A wave of clean-energy and water-treatment industry forecasts highlighted fast growth in green hydrogen, shore power for ports, waste-to-energy, and zero-liquid-discharge systems.

Strait of Hormuz Governance: Oman has put forward a Gulf-backed proposal to manage the Strait of Hormuz with Iran via a voluntary, fee-based system—modeled on the Strait of Malacca—while the US rejects any tolls, warning the waterway must remain free of Iranian control. Maritime Pollution Watch: After the July 26 sinking of the bulker Golden Leo near Odesa, Ukraine stepped up environmental monitoring and security; officials say no fuel contamination was found and the stain was linked to cargo corn husks. Red Sea Risk Escalation: Yemen’s Houthis claimed ballistic-missile attacks on Saudi tankers amid a naval blockade, while UKMTO reported an explosion near Jizan with no environmental damage reported. Wildfire Climate Pressure (Europe link): France and Spain are battling major wildfires with mass evacuations, underscoring how extreme heat is straining response capacity. Biosecurity Threat: New Zealand confirmed H5N1 in wild birds, with experts warning pest control around farms is a key, often overlooked line of defense to protect poultry and native species.

Strait of Hormuz Diplomacy: Oman says Gulf states back a plan letting Iran collect voluntary fees for Strait of Hormuz passage, aiming to ease oil and LNG disruption without giving Tehran sole control. Regional Conflict & Climate Risk: With the US-Iran standoff still shaping markets, the UN climate chief warned the “climate alarm” is blaring as heat and wildfires intensify across North Africa and beyond. Local Governance & Water Security (Iraq): A Kurdistan Region village model is pairing solar power with water management and rural development, showing how climate adaptation can be built into energy access. Women’s Safety (Iraq): A debate in Baghdad highlights a painful gap: Iraqi women gain visibility in politics, but domestic violence cases still face weak protection and enforcement. Energy Resilience (Moldova): Moldova declared a 30-day state of alert for energy and hydrology to prevent fuel and water shortages amid regional supply shocks. Renewables Outlook: The IEA projects renewables will keep growing fast in 2026, pushing their share of global power generation higher and helping renewables integration worldwide. Inclusive Hospitality (UAE): A Dubai hotel earned Certified Autism Center status, boosting staff training and accessibility for sensory-sensitive guests.

West Bank Finance Shock: Israeli banks reportedly plan to suspend Palestinian correspondent banking, a move that could trigger a West Bank economic collapse and disrupt clearance transfers. Climate & Energy Policy: The EU is clarifying methane rules and signaling flexibility on compliance and penalties to protect energy supply amid Middle East tensions. Shipping Emissions: During the Strait of Hormuz crisis, high bunker prices are pushing ships toward slower speeds and efficiency gains, but disruption still complicates emissions cuts. Heat & Food Risks: El Niño-linked weather is already reshaping commodity markets, with Ecuador exporters facing flooding and disease risks while global prices may rise. Oil Spill Watch: Bulgaria denies a persistent slick from a damaged sanctioned tanker, while Greenpeace Bulgaria urges a full investigation using satellite images. Water & Cooling Limits: Extreme heat is leaving many countries without enough power for cooling, raising health and energy-stress concerns across the region. Agriculture Prices: Coffee prices jumped as heavy rains delay Brazil’s harvest, tightening global supplies. Conservation Spotlight: Saudi Arabia’s mangrove conservation efforts highlight how coastal ecosystems are being protected amid wider climate pressures.

US-Iran Diplomacy: Mediators led by Qatar and Pakistan say talks are making progress as the US and Iran keep a pause in strikes, but the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and trust is still fragile. Wildfire & Heat Extremes: France and Spain are dealing with fast-moving wildfires driven by repeated heat waves, forcing mass evacuations and renewing calls for stronger climate action. Climate Impacts on Food: A new look at hotter conditions shows heatwaves cutting dairy yields, shifting crop zones north, and raising cold-chain costs across Europe. Middle East Energy/Trade Risk: Oil market focus is shifting from whether Hormuz reopens to how resilient flows stay amid Red Sea and Gulf disruptions, with prices sensitive to the durability of spare capacity. Shipbreaking Standards Clash (Bangladesh): A treaty dispute over applying Basel rules could raise costs and threaten closures, while activists warn beaching methods still fall short on environmental protection. C-UAS Tech for Critical Sites: ParaZero and Axon Vision unveiled a net-based counter-drone configuration for airports and energy facilities, reflecting how security needs are shaping regional infrastructure upgrades.

UNESCO Nature Protection: The UAE’s Wadi Wurayah in Fujairah has been inscribed on the UNESCO World Heritage List, boosting protection for a key natural site. Wildfire Crisis: Spain and France wildfires have forced more than 330,000 people to evacuate or shelter, with blazes threatening areas near Bordeaux. Water & Health in Conflict Zones: Iran’s foreign ministry says diplomacy is still open but warns the US war continues, while regional tensions also raise risks for critical water and energy systems. Energy Routes Under Strain: Saudi crude exports are shifting away from Bab al-Mandeb as Houthi actions disrupt shipping, pushing more cargo through the Suez Canal. Renewables & Power Cooperation: Egypt and the UK discussed expanded renewable energy and grid modernization cooperation. Local Climate Resilience: Iraq is seeing a shift in summer evening life patterns as families spend more time in cars and public spaces, reflecting changing urban routines amid heat.

Zero-Emission Transport: Amman was named a regional leader for zero-emission buses in the UITP 2026 report, praised for governance, ownership of electric buses and charging, and operational maturity. Marine Conservation: Jordan’s Aqaba Marine Reserve was inscribed on UNESCO’s World Heritage List after decades of research and protection work, highlighting long-term coastal biodiversity gains. Aviation Emissions & Greening: Saudi Arabia’s Cluster2 Airports reported carbon-accreditation progress and plans to plant 300,000 trees by 2030, tying airport operations to the country’s Green Initiative. Water & Climate Resilience: Iran and Oman held talks on managing the Strait of Hormuz, with UN rights officials warning about sailors’ conditions—an environmental and humanitarian pressure point for the region’s maritime systems. Energy Security vs Climate: A new analysis argues oil prices haven’t spiked as expected despite Hormuz and Red Sea disruptions because demand has been crushed, reshaping the region’s energy outlook. Local Environmental Governance: Saudi housing expansion continues under the Sakani program, while broader sustainability efforts remain tied to how new communities are planned and serviced.

Climate & Health: WHO rolled out a seven-point drowning-prevention package ahead of World Drowning Prevention Day, as Israel’s meteorology service warned of rough seas with waves up to 2.5 meters. Wildfire Risk: France and Spain battled fast-moving wildfires, forcing mass evacuations; officials linked the severity to high temperatures and climate change. Maritime Security & Environment: Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked shipping and missile/drone strikes tied to the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz escalation are raising fears of wider disruption to sea routes. Water Stress: Iran’s water crisis is framed as a governance turning point, with experts warning of structural “water bankruptcy” as demand outpaces replenishment. Local Green Industry: Kuwait’s Soof Wool Mill won an Innovative Energy Project Award for turning locally sourced wool into a more energy-efficient, circular-economy factory. Air Quality: Cairo saw a sharp PM2.5 drop in early 2026, alongside expanded monitoring and electric bus rollouts. Energy Transition: EU-backed methane rules face pushback over energy-security fears, while regional tensions keep pressure on energy markets. Heritage & Nature Protection: Kuwait reaffirmed support for UNESCO World Heritage efforts, as Turkmenistan proposed an Ashgabat Climate Dialogue at the UN General Assembly.

Red Sea Security & Environment: UN chief António Guterres warned that renewed Iran-backed Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea could widen the conflict, threatening freedom of navigation through Bab al-Mandab and bringing major economic, humanitarian and environmental fallout. Iraq Green Pilgrimage: Iraq’s Green Observatory urged “Green Procession” steps for Arbaeen, pushing mawakibs to cut plastic, cut food waste, avoid tree-cutting for firewood, and set up environmental service teams plus a “Cleanest Mawkib” competition. UAE Conservation Milestone: Wadi Wurayah National Park in Fujairah was added to UNESCO’s World Heritage List, boosting protection for its rare habitats and species and strengthening conservation funding and oversight. UAE Education Disruption: UAE school leaders said they’re preparing for the new academic year despite Iran-war-related disruptions, with many relocated students expected to return. Internet Controls in Iran: An Iranian lawmaker said internet restrictions will stay until security stabilizes, with easing access framed as a longer-term goal. Climate & Air Quality Risk: A dust-storm report highlighted rising severe sand and dust events affecting air quality and health across North Africa and the Middle East, alongside other regions.

Red Sea & Hormuz Security: UN experts warned that renewed US-Iran hostilities are hitting civilian infrastructure and raising the risk to desalination, power, ports and seafarers, with the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea routes again under strain. Energy & Water Impacts: Reports tied the escalation to power outages and damage to water facilities, while Gulf shipping risks pushed oil higher and renewed fears over supply disruptions. Climate & Heat Stress: A study and reporting highlighted dangerous heat across the region, including extreme desert temperatures and worsening dry conditions that can intensify water stress. Clean Tech Finance: The AfDB approved a €100m loan for Morocco’s first integrated lithium battery gigafactory, positioning battery storage as a “missing link” for solar and wind. Digital Inclusion & Sustainability: Orange’s 2025 CSR report spotlights solar-powered sites, circular practices for equipment, and broader access to digital and energy services across the Middle East and Africa. Energy Governance: Pakistan’s Senate committee demanded provinces get a 50% share of oil and gas revenues, citing incomplete implementation of constitutional devolution.

Hormuz & Red Sea Fallout: Nearly 1,500 ships trapped in the Persian Gulf as the Strait of Hormuz stays closed are becoming breeding grounds for invasive species, while biofouling also raises fuel use and emissions when vessels eventually move. Water & Infrastructure Under Fire: Reports say US strikes have hit Iranian water facilities, leaving thousands rationing water in extreme heat, as agencies also issue updated warnings about Iranian cyber actors targeting programmable logic controllers used in water and energy systems. Climate in the Region: Türkiye’s climate is shifting toward expanding dry zones and Mediterranean/semi-arid conditions, raising wildfire risk; in parallel, Finland’s warming is driving a surge in tick populations and tick-borne encephalitis cases. Energy Transition & Industry: Türkiye’s clean-tech startups get new COP31-linked funding calls, while the Middle East is set to lead global methanol capacity additions by 2030, boosted by gas feedstocks and new MTO projects. Local Environmental Compliance: Egypt’s TWMA wins a three-year contract extension for drilling waste management, processing thousands of tonnes annually at wellsites to meet environmental obligations.

Red Sea Energy Shock: Houthis say they’ve attacked two Saudi oil tankers and imposed a Red Sea blockade, pushing Brent above $100 and raising fears of a second chokepoint squeeze alongside Hormuz. Gulf Water Security: Iran-linked strikes have hit Kuwait’s power and desalination system again, threatening drinking-water supply in peak summer and forcing electricity cuts. Wildlife Under Threat: Iran’s environmental agency warns US-Israeli attacks put about 80% of the country’s wildlife species at risk, with habitat damage and casualties still unclear. Cyber & Critical Infrastructure: US warnings highlight Iran-linked hackers targeting water and energy systems, including industrial control equipment. Climate-Conflict Link: A new report argues climate change and armed conflict reinforce each other, worsening global public health impacts. Regional Diplomacy Pressure: ASEAN’s security forum in Manila is set to focus on renewed Middle East hostilities and Hormuz blockade risks. Nuclear Deal Fallout: The US-Saudi nuclear cooperation pact is framed as civilian power but raises enrichment concerns, while Israel’s growth outlook is cut by Moody’s amid conflict risk. Local Governance & Environment: Syria’s new sovereign wealth fund seeks foreign investment for reconstruction, but critics warn of transparency gaps as development expands into sensitive areas.

Red Sea Shipping Shock: Saudi says a tanker was hit and caught fire after Houthi missile/drone attacks, underscoring how Bab al-Mandab and Hormuz risks can ripple into energy and marine ecosystems. Gulf Water & Energy Stress: Reports say Iran-linked strikes have disrupted power and water infrastructure, including desalination and water facilities, raising fears for regional water security. Cybersecurity for Critical Infrastructure: US agencies warn Iranian-affiliated hackers expanded beyond Rockwell to Siemens and Schneider systems, manipulating safety alarms and sensor readings—an environmental and public-safety concern for utilities. Electricity Transition Watch: The IEA says renewables are set to become the biggest global power source in 2026, even as Middle East conflict temporarily lifts generation costs. Climate Mobilization: Türkiye’s COP31 volunteer program tops 10,000 applicants from 104 countries, aiming to scale climate outreach across Antalya and beyond. Biochar Market Signal: EU regulation is driving Europe’s biochar growth, with the market projected to surge through 2035.

Nuclear & Energy Security: The U.S. signed a nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia that opens a pathway to enrich fuel and uses U.S. firms for reactors, but critics warn it could weaken international inspection standards and raise proliferation risks. Maritime Risk & Oil Impacts: Yemen’s Houthis said they hit two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, while UK maritime reports cited a fire onboard one vessel and said no environmental impact had been reported. Climate & Water Under Strain: With the Middle East conflict disrupting infrastructure, reports point to water and power damage risks across the region, including desalination and water facilities. Gulf Governance & Shipping Threats: GCC leaders urged accountability at the UN Security Council over attacks and Houthi threats to close Bab al-Mandab, warning of knock-on effects for global energy security and shipping. Israel Environment Policy: Israel’s environment minister backed a pilot plan to use crocodiles around Ketziot Prison, framing it as a managed-wild-animal security measure rather than a stunt. UAE Digital Resilience: Dubai’s DMCC launched a cyber security vertical and expanded shared digital platforms with Emirates Group, pushing data and integration as core infrastructure.