AGP Executive Report

Energy Security & Plastics: Japan warns that Strait of Hormuz disruption could spike naphtha prices and force cuts in plastic-linked production, renewing calls to ditch single-use packaging and shift toward reusable and package-free options. Maritime Risk: A US Apache helicopter crash near the Strait of Hormuz comes as Iran-Israel tensions flare, underscoring how conflict logistics can quickly spill into the environment and shipping lanes. Aviation Emissions Pressure: IATA says airlines face an extra $100bn jet-fuel bill this year, with profits halving and fares rising—fuel shocks that can also worsen aviation’s climate footprint. Climate Tech & Cooling Demand: A market forecast puts centrifugal chillers on track to reach $6bn by 2034, driven by energy-efficiency needs in data centers and industry. Carbon Accounting in the Region: Broome International Airport in Australia hits carbon-neutrality for direct operations under Airport Carbon Accreditation, a model for regional aviation decarbonisation. Water & Weather Control: Kazakhstan trials artificial rain with UAE support, while Kyrgyzstan raises concerns about cross-border climate impacts. Renewables & Industry in Oman: Oman’s Duqm secures major investment for green hydrogen and ammonia, framed as Vision 2040 diversification with cleaner supply chains.

Water Security in Israel: Israel’s Water Authority backed a long-term plan to boost desalination to 2.3 billion cubic meters a year by 2050 and 2.75 billion by 2075, allowing private firms to plan and build large plants to speed delivery as climate change and urban growth strain supplies. Climate Reporting in Egypt: Egypt finalized its Fourth National Communication and first Biennial Transparency Report, with work funded by the Global Environment Facility and implemented with UNDP, while nearing updated climate targets for its next NDCs. Marine Life in the Eastern Mediterranean: Haifa University researchers spotted two rare sperm whales off Israel’s southern coast, but had to cut a deep-sea survey short due to an Iran-Israel missile alert. Regional Energy and Food Risks: FAO warned the Strait of Hormuz crisis is a global food-security threat, especially via fertilizer and production shocks, urging countries to keep agricultural inputs trading and protect humanitarian corridors. Jordan’s Resource Push: An energy expert said Jordan has major untapped gas, oil shale, and mineral potential, arguing weaker exploration institutions have held back development.

Aviation Fuel Shock: IATA says airline profits could be cut in half to about $23bn in 2026 as Middle East conflict drives up jet fuel costs and disrupts routes, squeezing margins. Climate Diplomacy: Bonn climate talks get underway ahead of Antalya, with negotiators pushing for stronger emissions cuts and more climate finance, while groups urge faster fossil-fuel phaseout. Marine Conservation: Egypt launched the Egyptian Red Sea Initiative to protect coral reefs, boost climate resilience, and grow sustainable tourism, backed by UNDP and the Global Fund for Coral Reefs. Industrial Greening: Egypt’s MSMEDA says it has financed green economy projects since 2014 and is funding dual-fuel vehicle conversion to cut emissions and costs. Energy Transition Finance: The EU proposes easing fiscal rules so countries can invest in grids, storage, solar, heat pumps and EVs amid energy-price pressure tied to the region. Water & Land Restoration: Coverage highlights how China’s “Great Green Wall” endures via long-term funding and local incentives—an approach many Gulf and other dryland projects struggle to sustain. Regional Mediation: Qatar and Iran discussed mediation efforts as volatility rises, underscoring how conflict spillovers keep hitting energy and trade.

Aviation & Climate Costs: IATA says the Middle East conflict has nearly halved the global airline 2026 profit forecast to $23bn as jet fuel prices surge and Gulf air corridors stay disrupted, with airlines warning fares will rise to cover the extra $100bn fuel bill. Energy Security & Shipping: Iran says it is drafting rules to collect environmental service tolls from ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while reports also say Iran is charging service fees averaging $1.5–2m per vessel—raising new uncertainty for regional maritime flows. World Environment Day & Waste: Kuwait’s bourse renewed climate action commitments for World Environment Day, and Istanbul’s Zero Waste Forum wrapped with a push for circular economy and stronger waste management cooperation ahead of COP31. Local Action & Conservation: Turkey’s first eco festival in Istanbul drew hundreds of thousands of visitors with a no-plastic-bottles model, and Saudi Arabia highlighted Red Sea marine protection efforts tied to measurable tourism compliance. Policy & Power Sector: Egypt is moving to reshape its electricity market rules with a partner on regulation, digitalisation, and renewable monitoring.

Renewables & finance: IRENA teamed up with UAE export credit insurer Etihad Credit Insurance to help de-risk renewable projects in emerging markets, aiming to unlock more investment via targeted risk mitigation. Urban climate resilience: The World Bank approved a €191.5m loan for Türkiye’s “Green and Future Cities” push in Antalya and Konya, backing low-emission transport, clean water, sanitation and energy-efficient municipal upgrades. Energy security & shipping pressure: With Strait of Hormuz disruptions still reshaping trade, analysts warn the Middle East conflict is feeding broader energy and inflation shocks that can ripple into global growth and IT demand. Infrastructure under strain: The World Bank also backed a $900m Iraq roads initiative meant to improve safety and climate resilience along key transport corridors. Industrial cybersecurity: Intech won an OT cybersecurity assessment contract for a Middle East liquid terminal operator, mapping gaps and building a roadmap for safer, more resilient industrial networks. Biodiversity & heritage: Syria’s Al-Lajat volcanic plateau—now highlighted on international heritage lists—sits alongside hundreds of archaeological sites and a protected forest reserve, spotlighting conservation beyond conflict.

Food Security Under Strain: The UN warns the Middle East war is already translating into hunger, with WFP saying closures around the Strait of Hormuz are driving up staple prices and could push tens of millions more into acute hunger if oil stays near $100 a barrel. Nuclear Safety Alarm: Qatar condemned an attack on the UAE’s Barakah nuclear plant, calling it a breach of international law and warning of environmental and civilian risks. Climate Risk Signal: The UN and WMO flag El Niño’s return, with an 80% chance before September, raising fears of hotter, drier conditions that could hit agriculture and water supplies across Asia. Zero Waste Push for COP31: Türkiye’s Zero Waste Forum in Istanbul drew ministers from 183 countries, with Azerbaijan joining and highlighting waste reduction as climate action ahead of COP31. Egypt’s Exposure to Conflict: The AfDB says Egypt is among Africa’s most vulnerable economies to regional instability, citing risks to Suez revenues, tourism, investment and energy markets. Agriculture Adaptation: Azerbaijan and Moldova agreed to expand cooperation on food security, climate-smart farming and post-harvest efficiency, including plans to boost trade and technology transfer. Sustainability in Telecom: Zain’s 2025 sustainability report highlights centralized ESG data management and automation of climate indicators across its Middle East and Africa operations.

Climate Finance: IRENA teamed up with Etihad Credit Insurance to help unlock renewable energy funding by reducing perceived risk in the Middle East and GCC. Waste & Policy: Türkiye’s First Lady Emine Erdoğan called zero waste a “bridge” to climate action ahead of COP31, citing the scale of plastic and ocean waste. Gulf Jobs & Instability: A Bahrain business leader warned Middle East tensions could jeopardize about 36 million jobs by 2027, as energy, insurance and transport costs hit firms. Food Security: The UN’s WFP said the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruption are already translating into higher hunger risk, with tens of millions more facing acute hunger if oil stays high. Energy Transition Under Pressure: Iraq is turning to solar as blackouts worsen after Iran gas cuts, while EU LNG demand is falling and renewables help cushion fossil shocks. Biodiversity: Arabian wildcats were photographed in UAE’s Wadi Wurayah National Park for the first time in at least a decade. Shipping Risks: Tankers increasingly switch off tracking systems to slip through Hormuz amid attacks, raising safety and environmental stakes.

Food Security Under Strain: The UN and WFP warn the Iran-war-linked Strait of Hormuz disruption is already translating into higher hunger, with projections of tens of millions more facing acute food insecurity if oil prices stay elevated. Energy & Trade Shock: Research from the Boston Fed says the Iran oil shock is hitting inflation more than jobs, reshaping how policymakers should think about energy disruptions. Iraq Infrastructure Boost: The World Bank approved a $900m package to upgrade Iraq and Kurdistan Region roads, aiming to improve safety, connectivity, and trade corridors despite climate pressures and deteriorating networks. Environment & Governance: Egypt faces mounting pressure from illegal gold mining, with investors and officials warning it threatens reserves and development. Climate Delivery Push: A World Environment Day-related push calls for practical action—like reducing concrete sprawl and encouraging tree planting—to cut heat and erosion impacts. Renewables Momentum: Gulf energy leaders continue positioning clean power and hydrogen as long-term resilience tools as fossil supply risks loom.

World Environment Day & Delivery Gap: UNOPS warns climate talks still chase pledges while communities need practical delivery systems that cut emissions, pollution, and biodiversity loss fast. Reuse Overhaul: PR3 launched a new global reuse symbol to push circular systems beyond recycling, rolling out on reusables and return infrastructure. Coastal Protection Under Pressure (Albania): Thousands protest a Kushner-linked €1.4bn luxury resort on Albania’s Adriatic coast near Vjosa-Narta wetlands, with critics warning of major habitat damage. Hormuz Fees & Environmental Cleanup: Iran says it will charge service fees for navigation, security, search-and-rescue, and pollution cleanup in the Strait of Hormuz—framing it as compensation, not transit tolls. Clean Energy & Efficiency (UAE): DEWA highlights World Environment Day progress via projects cutting carbon and boosting clean energy and resource efficiency. Waste-to-Energy Investment (Egypt): Egypt’s investment minister met Polar Hydro in London on the Shubramant waste treatment and recycling project to produce alternative fuels and clean energy. Marine Heat Emergency (Pakistan/Arabian Sea): A minister warns of an unprecedented marine heatwave in the northern Arabian Sea, raising risks for monsoons, cyclones, fisheries, and coastal infrastructure. Renewables Growth (Türkiye): Türkiye expanded renewable capacity by 55% since 2020, with wind and solar now driving a larger share of electricity. LEED Platinum (Abu Dhabi): Abu Dhabi Public Health Centre earned LEED Platinum v4.1 O+M, cutting energy use per person by 36% and water by 42%. Climate Governance Push (UN/Global): UN climate resolution calls for protecting activists as governments head to Bonn to act on commitments and human rights.

World Environment Day: Ahead of June 5 in Baku, Azerbaijan, organizers warned that climate signals are getting louder—rising seas, heat waves, and melting glaciers—urging faster action under the theme “Inspired by Nature. For Climate. For Our Future.” Qatar Environmental Policy: Qatar’s environment minister said protection is a national priority tied to quality of life and future resource security, with stronger monitoring, biodiversity safeguards, and climate-impact tracking. Climate Adaptation in Turkmenistan: A roundtable in Ashgabat focused on climate-risk management in the Murgab River Basin, pushing better water planning, disaster preparedness, and cross-agency coordination. Blue-Carbon Research (Bahrain): New findings suggest dugongs around Hawar Islands may boost seagrass “blue carbon” storage by cycling nutrients that help meadows regrow. Energy Shock & Climate Link: The Iran-war oil disruption is driving energy-price pressure and inflation, while renewables and energy-security planning are being reframed as a climate and resilience issue across the region. Local Conservation (Egypt): Egypt is boosting Red Sea conservation efforts, aiming to protect marine ecosystems amid wider regional instability. Wildlife & Public Safety: A U.S. wildlife alert highlighted invasive reptiles spreading disease, underscoring how environmental change can worsen biosecurity risks.

Middle East conflict and energy shock: Global airline leaders meet in Rio to tackle Iran-war fuel spikes, detours, and climate-goal strain, with sustainable aviation fuel supply and Middle East airspace disruption in focus. Gaza governance and civic collapse: The UN human rights office says Gaza’s police and other public institutions are being repeatedly targeted, warning this “systematic targeting” undermines civic order and may amount to war crimes. AI’s environmental footprint: A UN report warns data centers tied to AI could double power and water use by 2030, adding major carbon emissions and e-waste pressure. Water and climate resilience: Türkiye’s coastal housing boom highlights demand for nature-adjacent living, while separate coverage flags freshwater stress risk as climate change intensifies. Renewables and infrastructure push: AECOM calls for “responsible progress” in Middle East infrastructure ahead of World Environment Day, urging resilience and lower environmental impact. Food and fertilizer pressure: Reports link Iran-war disruptions to fertilizer alternatives and rising costs, raising concerns for farm output and food security.

Nuclear Energy & Environment: Iran’s Bushehr plant hit a record 80 billion kWh output, with officials saying it helped avoid major oil and gas use and cut pollution emissions. Food Security & Climate Risk: A “Super El Niño” is forecast to intensify droughts, floods and extreme heat, with knock-on threats to water, forests and food systems already strained by conflict and shortages. Agriculture Under Pressure: Moroccan locust swarms are damaging crops in eastern Iran, prompting pesticide spraying and warnings to protect livelihoods. Regional Water & Ecosystems: Reports say pollution is decimating Iraq’s river ecosystems, adding to wider environmental stress from conflict. Trade, Energy Prices & Climate Costs: The war in the Middle East is feeding inflation via energy-related costs, while global insurance gaps for natural disasters keep widening—an issue that hits the Middle East and Africa hard. Regional Governance & Security: Bahrain arrested 15 people linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard amid heightened regional tensions. Suez Supply Chains: Egypt and Japan signed a framework for a Suez Canal industrial zone to diversify production and strengthen global supply chains. Air Quality & Waste: Israel’s air quality gains still lag on recycling, according to new data.

Water Crisis in Iraq: A mass fish die-off on the Tigris in Wasit has killed millions of fish and exposed wider pollution and governance failures across Iraq’s river system, with contamination likely spreading upstream and across provinces. Climate Diplomacy: A new push argues multilateral climate talks still matter because they’re the only forum to hold governments to their climate promises, especially for vulnerable countries facing loss and damage. Strait of Hormuz Pressure: Renewed US-Iran tensions and talk of possible fees for Hormuz navigation are again rattling markets and raising energy-shock fears that can spill into food and household costs. Hunger Risk from El Niño: In Guatemala’s Dry Corridor, wells are drying and farmers fear subsistence crops will fail, with hunger fears rising as El Niño approaches. Heat Threats to Hajj: Saudi Arabia’s pilgrimage season is being flagged as increasingly exposed to extreme heat, even in spring. Renewables & Grid Signals: EV momentum and energy-price cap changes highlight how Middle East conflict can quickly feed into electricity costs and climate progress. Energy Shock Outlook: OECD warns the Middle East conflict could mean either a short disruption or a prolonged one into 2027, with bigger economic and social costs if it drags on.

Zero-Waste Push in Kuwait: Türkiye’s embassy joined Kuwait’s Healthy City Project recycling drive, collecting used oil, glass, paper, plastics, clothes and e-waste, and promoting Turkey’s Zero Waste approach. Gulf Rail Integration: Kuwait’s municipal council approved the right-of-way and plan for the Kuwait–Saudi Arabia railway link, a first phase toward a unified GCC rail network that could boost logistics and trade. AI-Backed Healthcare in Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia unveiled a value-based health model using AI diagnostics, robotic surgeries and virtual care, with Seha Virtual Hospital linking 242 hospitals for hundreds of thousands of beneficiaries. Robotaxis Expand in the Region: Uber, WeRide and Avomo plan Spain’s first commercial autonomous-vehicle pilot in Madrid, citing existing robotaxi experience in Abu Dhabi and Dubai. Water and Waste Governance Angle: A commentary on Lake Champlain highlights how basin-wide, consensus-based governance can protect shared water resources—an approach relevant to regional environmental management. Food Security Pressure from Conflict: Fairtrade warned UK tariff cuts tied to the Iran-war cost crunch could disrupt cocoa-farmer pay in West Africa. Energy-Climate Link: Britain set an ~87% emissions cut target by 2040, but critics note it still lacks a clear delivery plan.

Lebanon Crisis at the UN: A majority of UN Security Council members condemned Israel’s escalating strikes on Lebanon, warning that renewed occupation would worsen instability and displacement; Russia urged immediate troop withdrawal and warned of a Gaza-style replay. UN Peacekeeping Options: UN chief António Guterres proposed new southern Lebanon force arrangements after Unifil’s eventual withdrawal, outlining multiple troop-and-observer models to support the Lebanese army and help prevent renewed conflict. Gaza Displacement Fears: Palestinians in Gaza fear further forced movement as Israel plans to expand its “yellow zone,” potentially confining nearly two million people into a smaller part of the enclave amid severe shortages. Heat-Proof Farming in the Desert: In Yuma, researchers tested large-scale evaporative cooling to protect crops from extreme heat and extend harvest windows, aiming to reduce heat-driven yield losses. Food and Water Stress Signals: Pakistan cut its mango export target by 30,000 tons due to Middle East shipping disruptions, higher freight costs, and climate-linked crop losses; in Guatemala’s Dry Corridor, El Niño-linked drought is driving hunger fears as wells dry. Energy Security Pressure: Oil prices steadied after Trump claimed progress on Lebanon and US-Iran talks, while markets remain sensitive to Hormuz and ceasefire uncertainty.

Strait of Hormuz & shipping security: Kuwait and UK maritime authorities reported new attacks in the Arabian Gulf near Iraq, including a cargo vessel hit by an unidentified projectile southeast of Umm Qasr; UKMTO said there was no known environmental impact, but investigations continue as tensions with Iran keep disrupting maritime traffic. Ceasefire diplomacy: Lebanon’s US embassy said Hezbollah accepted a US proposal for “mutual cessation of attacks,” with Israeli strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs to stop if Hezbollah refrains from attacks, while talks are set to expand across Lebanese territories. Energy transition & resilience: Greece’s PM said shipping is a strategic asset and urged a return to free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, while Bulgaria’s Green Transition Forum 6.0 pushed EU structural reforms and energy diversification. Water & renewables in the Gulf: Coverage highlighted Gulf states boosting renewable water resources as groundwater use declines, alongside broader regional efforts to secure water and energy under conflict pressure. Climate governance: An African court climate case seeks guidance on states’ duties to protect people from climate harms, framing climate action as a human-rights obligation.